Post-Quantum Threat to the Crypto Industry

Amid the development of quantum technologies, Quantus project conducted a study, emphasizing that the crypto industry is not yet ready for the transition to post-quantum cryptography. Innovative computational methods could jeopardize the security of existing systems, including wallets, exchanges, and validators.

Industry Status

Most crypto projects still rely on classical signature schemes like ECDSA and Ed25519. Shor’s algorithm, which can be implemented on quantum computers, is theoretically capable of breaking these systems.

In August 2024, NIST (U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology) approved the first standards for post-quantum cryptography: ML-KEM and ML-DSA. This move is aimed at preparing the industry for the potential collapse of traditional security schemes.

Technical Issues and Challenges

Maintaining the security of cryptographic systems in blockchains is more complex than in traditional IT infrastructure. In centralized systems, cryptography can be updated through a patch, whereas in decentralized systems like blockchains, keys can remain in the network for many years. Harvest now, decrypt later scenario suggests that data collected now will be decrypted later using more powerful quantum machines.

Impact on Bitcoin

The study pays special attention to Bitcoin. A standard Bitcoin transaction requires about 97 bytes for a signature and public key. However, post-quantum solutions like ML-DSA-87 increase this volume to approximately 7187 bytes, which could significantly reduce the number of transactions in a block. BIP-360 proposes migrating current blockchain systems to increase their resilience to quantum attacks.

Role of IT Giants

Many major tech companies have already started applying post-quantum solutions. Signal uses the PQXDH protocol, Google has implemented the hybrid X25519Kyber768 in Chrome, and Apple—the PQ3 system for iMessage. These examples confirm that a significant part of the IT sector is ahead of the crypto market in preparing for the post-quantum era.

Conclusion

Developers and investors in the crypto market must actively seek ways to adapt to new cryptographic standards to ensure the security of their systems in the post-quantum era.

• Features: The necessity of preparation for the shift in cryptographic standards.
• Risks: Security threats and reduced network performance.
• Opportunities: Transition to more secure cryptographic methods.
• Threats: Lagging behind the IT sector in adapting to post-quantum technologies.

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